Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

The Colider and Roosevelt Volcanic rocks (sw amazonian craton): geochemistry and sm-nd isotope characteristics of a silicic large igneous province

The volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations are extensively exposed in the south-central portion of the Amazonian Craton where effusive and pyroclastic rocks have been mapped. Both units, topped by chemical sediments and oceanic facies as rhyolite and andesite lavas, rhyodacite, and porphyritic dacite, with frequent intercalations of pyroclastic and epiclastic deposits. Whole-rock geochemistry for 55 samples of rhyolitic to andesitic composition suggests the involvement of fertile mantle-derived components with E-MORB to OIB compositions. The analyzed rocks display calc-alkaline to shoshonitic affinity consistent with generation related to an active continental margin. The whole-rock Sm-Nd isotope data from selected felsic volcanic rocks of the Colíder and Roosevelt formations yield negative initial ε_Nd values between –3 and –9, indicating the predominantly crustal nature of the parental magmas with early Archean to late Paleoproterozoic (ca. 2.5–2.0 Ga) depleted mantle model ages.

     

Magnetic properties of iron-rich oxisols

Four occurrences of highly magnetic soil in Brazil have been analysed with a view to identifying the magnetic minerals and quantifying the soil magnetization. Techniques used include X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence and Mössbauer spectroscopy. This approach leads us to identify several ways that these soils, which have spontaneous magnetization in the range 1_s<35 j/t/kg,="" can="" come="">One soil, which forms on dolerite (19.6 wt% Fe₂O₃), is found to contain fully-oxidized titanomaghemite inherited from the parent rock. This oxide has a canted ferrimagnetic spin structure with _s=36 J/T/kg of sample. The three others, formed on very iron-rich rock (50–90 wt% Fe₂O₃), contain magnetite or maghemite as the magnetic species and in two cases the soil is more magnetic than the parent rock (largely composed of pure hematite).     

Andean evolution at the Guañacos and Chos Malal fold and thrust belts (36°30′–37°s)

The Andes between 36°30′ and 37°S represent a Cretaceous fold and thrust belt strongly reactivated in the late Miocene. Most of the features that absorbed Neogene shortening were already uplifted in the late Cretaceous, as revealed by field mapping and confirmed by previous fission track analysis. This Andean section is formed by two sectors: a western-inner sector generated by the closure of the upper Oligocene-lower Miocene intra-arc Cura Mallín basin between the middle and late Miocene (Guañacos fold and thrust belt), and an eastern-outer sector, where late Triassic-early Jurassic extensional depocenters were exhumed in two discrete phases of contraction, in the latest early Cretaceous and late Miocene to the Present, respectively (Chos Malal fold and thrust belt). Late Miocene deformation has not homogeneously reactivated Cretaceous compressive structures, being minimal south of 37°30′S through the eastern-outer sector (southern continuation of the Chos Malal fold and thrust belt). The reason for such an inhomogeneous deformational evolution seems to be related to the development of a late Miocene shallow subduction regime between 34°30′ and 37°45′S, as it was proposed in previous studies. This shallow subduction zone is evidenced by the eastward expansion of the arc that was accompanied by the eastern displacement of the orogenic front at these latitudes. As a result, the Cretaceous fold and thrust belt were strongly reactivated north of 37°30′S producing the major topographic break along the Southern Central Andes.     

Capturing critical behaviour in soil moisture spatio-temporal dynamics

A physical system is subject to a phase transition process when it shows a discontinuous change of a macroscopic feature of the system under a continuous change of a system’s state variable.     

Shaking‐table tests on reinforced concrete frames with different isolation systems

The effectiveness of seismic isolation in protecting structural and non‐structural elements from damage has been assessed in an extensive programme of shaking‐table tests, carried out on four identical 1/3.3‐scale, two‐dimensional, reinforced concrete (R/C) frames. Four different isolation systems were considered, namely: (i) rubber‐based, (ii) steel‐based, (iii) shape memory alloy (SMA)‐based and (iv) hybrid, i.e. based on both SMA and steel components, isolation systems. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the main results of the experimental tests on base‐isolated models, whose structural response is described through: (i) maximum base displacements; (ii) maximum interstorey drifts; (iii) maximum storey accelerations and (iv) maximum storey shear forces. The evolution of the fundamental frequency of vibration of the R/C frame during the tests is also described. The beneficial effects of using base isolation resulted in no or slight damage, under strong earthquakes, to both structural and non‐structural members, as well as to the internal content of the building. The comparison with the experimental results obtained in shaking‐table tests on similar fixed‐base models emphasizes these positive aspects. Finally, advantages and drawbacks related to the use of each isolation system are discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comments on “Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation” by P. Pasquier and D. Marcotte

Pasquier and Marcotte [Pasquier P, Marcotte D. Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation. Adv Wat Res 2006;29:1934–52] propose some modifications to the Comparison Model Method (CMM), in order to apply it to transient 3D ground water flow data for conductivity identification. We present some remarks on that paper to improve the comprehension of the basic features of the CMM and of the real value of the novelties introduced by Pasquier and Marcotte.     

Peak runoff contributing area as hydrological signature of the probability distribution of floods

For the analysis of hydrological extremes and particularly in flood prediction, deeper investigation is needed on the relative effects of different hydrological processes acting at the basin scale in different hydroclimatic areas of the world. In this framework, the theoretical derivation of flood distribution shows a great potential for development and knowledge advancement. In addition, another promising path of investigation is represented by the use of distributed hydrological models via simulation modelling (including Monte Carlo, discrete event and continuous simulation). In this paper results of a theoretically derived flood frequency distribution are analyzed and compared with the results of a simulation scheme that uses a distributed hydrological model (DREAM) in cascade with a rainfall generator (IRP). The numerical simulation allows the reproduction of a large number of extreme events and provides insight into the main control for flood generation mechanisms with particular emphasis to the peak runoff contributing areas, highlighting the relevance of soil texture and morphology in different climatic environments. The proposed methodology is applied here to the Agri and the Bradano basin, in Southern Italy.